TACO trade or GAIN trade? Markets brace for tariffs and bank earnings.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, dives into the macro and trade themes driving markets as the summer lull in new issuance takes hold.

• Markets are eyeing the August 1st deadline for potential 30% tariffs on Europe, with optimism that a resolution will be reached.
• US GSIBs and regional banks kick off 2Q earnings this week, with a focus on asset quality, macro outlooks, and shareholder distribution plans.
• US High Yield bond market liquidity is at record highs, with daily trading volumes up 14–19% year-over-year, signaling a more tradeable and robust market.

With strong technicals, tighter credit spreads, and optimism around 2Q numbers, the market is navigating the balance between opportunity and risk.