Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

This is Market Pulse: Monday's numbers.

Oil:
• WTI trading $60.77 to $61.77, down 1.10%
• Brent ranging $64.60 to $66.37, up 0.13%
• Prices consolidating after last week's surge on Russian sanctions
• Markets digesting supply dynamics and demand outlook

Gas:
• Henry Hub at $3.27 per MMBtu, down 1.00% from Friday
• Up 14.24% year-over-year
• November futures at $3.45
• EIA forecasting Q4 average at $3.33, January 2026 climbing to $4.10

Production:
• Permian breakeven costs holding at $61 per barrel average
• Large operators at $61, smaller firms at $66
• EIA projecting oil prices at $48 by 2026, below $60 breakeven threshold
• Tier 1 rock averaging $60 breakeven, Tier 4 requiring $96

Real Estate:
• Cap rates stabilizing with modest compression expected
• Industrial declining 30 basis points from 2024 peaks
• Class A distribution in Tier 1 markets at 4.75% to 5.5%
• Multifamily compressing 17 basis points
• Class A metro high-rise at 4.90% to 5.17%
• Investment sales projected up 10% in 2025

Credit:
• SOFR showing liquidity concerns in October
• Rates increasing 20 to 30 basis points on liquidity shortfalls
• Standing Repo Facility usage rising, signaling potential funding market stress
• SOFR to IORB spread widening
• System margin for error narrowing

Bottom Line:
Oil consolidating near $61 after sanctions spike. Gas positioning for winter strength. Permian economics challenged below $60. Real estate cap compression underway. Credit markets showing early stress signals. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%.

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