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This is Market Pulse — Wednesday's Numbers

Oil
• WTI: $57.94, down 0.02%
• Brent: $62.35, down 0.21%
• WTI-Brent spread: $4.41
• WTI crude oil dropped to five-week low of $57.10 per barrel on Tuesday before recovering slightly to close at $58 a barrel
• Brent crude futures later rose 27 cents, or 0.43%, to $62.75 a barrel
• Price has fallen 5.50% over past month and 15.69% compared to same time last year
• Global crude oil prices experienced losses due to progress in U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
• WTI crude oil fell 2.5% over past five trading sessions, reaching $58.05 per barrel
• U.S. President Donald Trump described negotiations as nearly complete
• Potential for Western sanctions on Russia's energy sector to be lifted raised concerns about supply glut
• Increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers like U.S., coupled with muted global consumption growth, contributed to oversupply
• U.S. oil production has been breaking records, with preliminary November figures approaching 13.8 million barrels per day
• OPEC's crude production increasing towards its 2022 peak
• OPEC's November Monthly Oil Market Report shifted its Q3 2025 global balance estimate from deficit to surplus due to increasing U.S. output and OPEC crude gains
• U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week
• Technical analysis shows double bottom chart pattern formed around $57.14 per barrel, suggesting potential reversal of earlier downtrend
• Price testing resistance at broken support zone around $58.19
• 100-day simple moving average still below 200-day simple moving average, indicating path of least resistance is to downside, but gap between moving averages appears to be narrowing
• Stochastic moving up from oversold region, and RSI also climbing, reflecting strengthening bullish pressure

Gas
• Henry Hub: $4.54, up 1.21% from previous day
• Over past month, natural gas prices have increased 13.47%, up 41.55% compared to same time last year
• Natural gas expected to trade at $4.69 by end of current quarter
• Estimates suggest it will trade at $5.73 in 12 months
• Earlier in day, U.S. natural gas futures dropped nearly 5% to about $4.40 per million British thermal units
• December futures fell 3.8% to $4.38 per million British thermal units
• January 2026 futures were down about 3.8% at $4.50 per million British thermal units
• Natural gas broke below its ascending channel support, signaling potential reversal from earlier uptrend
• Commodity testing support around $4.14 level, potentially spurring correction
• Relative Strength Index bouncing from oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce
• Record production and strong storage levels have kept supplies ample
• Output in Lower 48 states has averaged 109.7 billion cubic feet per day in November, surpassing October's 107.4 billion cubic feet per day and breaking previous monthly record
• Inventories about 5% above seasonal average
• Colder weather expected from November 28 to December 5, which could increase demand
• LNG exports rising, with flows to major U.S. terminals averaging 18 billion cubic feet per day in November
• EIA has revised its 2025 average Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast upwards to $3.79 per million British thermal units, 20% increase from previous estimates
• For winter season, EIA forecasts average Henry Hub spot price of $3.90 per million British thermal units, peaking in January at $4.25

Real Estate
• Real estate market showing signs of stabilizing, moving towards greater balance and affordability
• Cautiously optimistic mood as we enter late November 2025
• While full recovery to previous levels isn't expected, worst seems to be over
• For first time in over two years, affordability is improving
• Home prices have softened in many markets, and slight dips in mortgage rates giving buyers more room in their budgets
• Mortgage rates have been trending downward through most of 2025, currently hovering near 6%
• Home values expected to increase modestly, with projections indicating rise of 1.2% over next 12 months
• Existing home sales projected to reach 4.09 million in 2025, 0.6% increase from 2024
• Inventory increasing across country, with active listings exceeding 1.1 million
• This provides buyers with more options and less competitive environment compared to recent years
• Gradual loosening of inventory as more homeowners have mortgage rates over 6% and life events prompt them to move
• Turnover rate remains low, with only 2.8% of U.S. homes expected to sell in 2025, one of smallest levels of movement in modern history

Credit
• Credit markets navigating new era shaped by clearing, innovation, and liquidity challenges
• Unlike disruptions of 2020 and 2022, credit spreads have widened without steep dislocations of prior crises, highlighting sector's structural evolution
• High-yield credit experienced turbulence, with CDX HY spreads widening before recovering as investors sought opportunities to add risk
• Liquidity concentrated in index-based products, which offer deeper markets and lower basis risk
• SOFR designed to replace LIBOR as financial index
• SOFR averages are compounded averages of SOFR over rolling 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day periods
• SOFR Index measures cumulative impact of compounding SOFR over time
• Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% remain the target

Bottom Line
• Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75—Russia-Ukraine peace talks driving prices lower, U.S. production approaching 13.8 million barrels per day, OPEC shifting Q3 2025 from deficit to surplus
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked—natural gas broke below ascending channel support, testing $4.14 level, colder weather expected November 28 to December 5 could increase demand
• Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs—affordability improving for first time in over two years, home values expected to rise 1.2% over next 12 months
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%—high-yield credit spreads widening before recovering, stay defensive on lower-quality credit

That's your Market Pulse update.

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