Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

This is Market Pulse — Wednesday's numbers.

Equities:
• Markets extended Tuesday's selloff Wednesday
• S&P 500 down 1.2% Tuesday to 6,772, futures down 0.02% Wednesday
• Nasdaq tumbled 2.0% Tuesday to 23,349, futures down 0.03%
• Dow fell 0.5% to 47,085, futures up 0.06%
• AI infrastructure stocks driving losses
• JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs warning of market corrections on overvalued AI stocks
• VIX up 10.7% to 19, signaling elevated uncertainty
• Seven of eleven S&P sectors negative Tuesday

Oil:
• WTI at $60.33, flat Wednesday
• Brent at $64.24, stable from prior session
• Both holding near recent lows on persistent oversupply concerns
• OPEC+ maintaining production cuts but market pricing in potential surplus
• Manufacturing weakness weighing on demand outlook
• WTI range-bound $60 to $61, Brent $64 to $65

Gas:
• Henry Hub at $4.23 per MMBtu, down slightly Wednesday
• Holding near $4.24 range
• Winter demand supporting prices above $4.00
• EIA Q4 forecast at $4.11 average
• Goldman Sachs targeting $4.00 for November-December
• Storage 6% above five-year average but cold weather forecasts providing floor

Production:
• Permian output at 6.6 million barrels per day, slight decline trend through year-end
• EIA projecting gradual decrease to 6.37 million by end 2026
• Chevron Q3 output just over 1 million barrels per day
• Exxon record 1.7 million barrels oil equivalent per day
• Operators maintaining discipline with WTI at $60
• Drilling activity slowing on price pressure

Real Estate:
• Cap rates stable Q4 2025
• Multifamily Class A at 4.74%, Class B at 4.92%
• Industrial at 4.84% to 6.71% by class
• Office Class A at 8.4%, Class C above 9%
• Retail at 6.65%
• Fed rate cuts improving financing conditions
• Market optimistic despite elevated rates

Credit:
• SOFR at 4.13%, 30-day average 4.20%
• SOFR-IORB spread at highest since 2020, signaling financial strain
• Repo market squeeze from banks hoarding reserves
• Treasury debt draining liquidity
• Investment-grade bonds showing better liquidity than high-yield
• Credit markets showing stress beneath calm surface

Bottom Line:
Equities extended losses on AI valuation concerns, JPMorgan and Goldman warning of corrections. Oil flat at $60, Brent at $64, oversupply fears persist. Gas holding $4.23, winter demand supporting. Permian declining gradually, operators disciplined. Real estate cap rates stable, Fed cuts helping. Credit markets showing strain, SOFR spread at 2020 highs. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%.

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