Market Watch

Wall Street's first wave of Q3 bank earnings split the field, with Bank of America missing consensus by 17% and JPMorgan underperforming by 6%, even as Goldman Sachs posted a clean result that barely moved its stock. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has slipped roughly 3% against the greenback over the past six months despite potential Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes, while Indonesia's equity market lost US$65 billion in a single session following an MSCI index downgrade warning.

Kingsley Jones, Chief Investment Officer at Jevons Global, analyses what early bank results and AI-driven debt issuance reveal ahead of earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. He unpacks the RBA's inflation-versus-growth dilemma, assesses whether Indonesia's sell-off presents a value opportunity, and breaks down China's latest growth figures alongside the broader outlook for global markets.

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The AI trade is facing renewed scrutiny as semiconductor stocks come under pressure, even as TSMC reports record profits. Meanwhile, US inflation has climbed to 3.7%, driven largely by higher energy prices, while strong retail sales and surging producer prices raise questions about corporate profit margins. We speak to Tim Mulholland, President of TJM Limited, about the semiconductor sell-off, shifting demand for US Treasuries, mixed signals from Wall Street bank earnings and where investors should look for opportunities in an increasingly uncertain market.

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Inflation Pressures Mount as Fed Decision Looms

U.S. September CPI showed renewed acceleration driven by energy prices, with further increases expected into year-end. Real wages are under pressure, with consumer-facing companies including Domino's Pizza and McDonald's already signalling stress.

Laurent Lequeu, independent market analyst and writer for the Macro Butler newsletter, examines how rising inflation and a weakening employment market could push the U.S. towards stagflation, what the bond market's move at the longer end signals about structural inflation and fiscal credibility, and how the interest rate differential and capital flows are shaping the yen's outlook.

He also explores China's widening trade imbalance and its reliance on exports over domestic consumption. Tune in for his read on where the Fed, Bank of Japan, and bond traders go from here.

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JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reported strong results, with equity trading particularly robust and consumer credit card use up 10% or more across most institutions, yet every bank's shares fell on the day.

David Dietze, Chief Investment Strategist at Dietze Wealth Management Group, examines what the bank results reveal about consumer resilience, deal pipelines and loan quality, and how elevated expectations may shape the broader earnings season ahead.

He also weighs the fundamental drivers behind Korea's sharp selloff earlier this week, including emerging Chinese competition in high-bandwidth memory and warnings of overexuberance in the sector, and looks ahead to ASML and TSMC results for clues on whether commercial demand is keeping pace with AI capital spending.

Tune in for his read on the consumer-facing earnings to watch, from Bank of America's retail lending to Tesla and Netflix.

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Major US banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are set to report their earnings this week with analysts expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 30.6% in Q3. Joe Quinlan, Chief Market Strategist, US Trust-BOA Private Wealth Management, shares his insights into what we can expect as well as how European and Chinese markets might behave in the coming days.

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US equities continue to climb despite elevated Treasury yields, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions keeping oil above US$100 a barrel. With major US banks kicking off earnings season and fresh inflation data due, investors face another test of whether current valuations can be justified. Meanwhile, Australia's weakening labour market is complicating the outlook for interest rates, while gold attempts a recovery and China introduces fresh stimulus measures. Can markets sustain their momentum as economic and geopolitical risks continue to build?

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With Budget 2027 tabled on the 9th Oct, what will investors need to see to stay confident in Malaysia, especially after foreign funds turned net sellers of Malaysian government bonds in September? Globally, AI-related debt issuance has passed US$575 billion this year, while TSMC’s record quarterly revenue strengthens the case for the AI boom. Meanwhile, Brent crude is back above US$100 a barrel on Middle East disruptions, and gold is struggling to recover from a two-month low. Song Seng Wun, Independent Economist, breaks down what this means for markets in the region.

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Goldman Sachs and Citi now see the S&P 500 ending the year somewhere between 7,400 and 8,100, and analysts expect third-quarter earnings to grow by more than 30%. Underneath that optimism, there are warning signs. Distressed loans are at their highest level since March 2020, with tech making up more than a third of them, and Treasury yields keep rising. We speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, about whether the rally can hold, how much the market trusts Scott Bessent, and whether stress in credit could spread to other sectors.

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Faced with severe supply disruptions across the Middle East and Russia, G7 nations have agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel reserves. But is this enough? Zameer Yusuf, Lead Analyst for Clean Products at Kpler, joins The Morning Run to break down the global diesel crunch.

He dives into the impact of the G7 intervention, how trade rerouting could push up pump prices in Asia, and why a populist US export ban would backfire on American refineries and consumers alike.

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Weak US jobs data has reduced expectations of another immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, yet long-term Treasury yields remain close to multi-decade highs, creating a difficult backdrop for markets across Asia. Investors are also weighing possible further tightening in Japan and India, continued efforts to revive China’s economy, and whether the extraordinary rally in South Korean equities can continue. Are Asian markets adjusting to a world where borrowing costs remain structurally higher even if the Fed pauses?

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