Equity traders came back from the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday in selling mode, and for good reason. The yield on the 10-year treasury spiked nearly 500 basis points to its highest level since December of 2019. The worst part, for the equities market at least, is that the price action confirms an uptrend that began in the wake of the pandemic and points to much higher rates ahead. With the FOMC tapering and on track to not only hike rates but to run-off its balance sheet as well we see the rates on the 10-year Treasury moving up above the 2.0% level soon and reaching as high as 2.5% by the end of the year.

A much-weaker than expected read of the Empire State Manufacturing index can be blamed for Tuesday?s weakness as well. The index fell to -0.7 versus the 25.5 expected by the market and points not only to slowing but contraction with the economy.