The markets face a tough challenge this week that could set the tone of trading for the remainder of the year. The S&P 500 is facing a test of the key support level at 4,300 and buying may not be strong enough to keep the market above that level. If so, the door will be opened for a decline to 4,000 or lower. In that event, value and dividends will become even more important than ever.

On tap for the market this week? The monthly read of core consumer inflation in the form of the PCE price index. The one thing evident in the forecast is that analysts are slow to make predictions given the pace of increase seen in the January CPI. As it stands, consumer-level inflation is close to the 10% range and could easily top that in the coming months. The takeaway for the market is to expect aggressive interest rate increases from the Fed and for S&P 500 margins to continue to compress.