Equities began the week with a retreat driven by rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is slowly encroaching on Ukrainian territory and has Europe on the brink of war. The S&P 500 shed about 2.0% at the low of the session and may move lower by the end of the week. The key level for investors to watch is 4,300, a break of this level could send the index down another 10% or more.

Trading this week will be driven by the PCE price index more than anything else. The PCE price index is due out on Friday and is expected to show an acceleration of consumer-level inflation to new multi-decade highs. With the FOMC already set to raise rates in March, a hot number will only increase the odds of a 50 basis point hike to start the cycle. The CME's Fedwatch tool shows the market is pricing in only a 36% chance of 50 basis points in March so there is risk in the data.