Equity markets started the 2nd quarter on shaky footing with the S&P 500 hovering near break-even on Friday. The move was driven by weaker than expected labor data amplified by the ever-rising threat of inflation. Job creation topped 400,000 for March but fell short of the consensus while wages rose at the fastest YOY pace since the first months of the pandemic. The data points to both tightening labor conditions and accelerating inflation that more than suggest Fed action is needed.

This week will be a quiet week for the market with little on either the economic or earnings calendar. The biggest news of the week, other than geopolitical, will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The minutes will most likely reveal a more hawkish than previously expected FOMC and up the stakes in regards to interest rate hikes. At this point, the FOMC is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at the next two meetings and that could extend to three meetings if there is no real deceleration in consumer-level price increases.