Equities tumbled last week on growing fear of overly aggressive interest rate hikes from the FOMC. The minutes from the last meeting reveal the committee is looking at a series of large interest rate hikes as well as the beginning of the balance sheet runoff. The CME's Fedwatch Tool is pricing in 3 consecutive 50 basis point hikes with a chance of 10 more 25 basis point bumps this year. At this pace, interest rates will be well above their pre-pandemic level and their effects will be felt throughout the economy.

The risk for the market this week is twofold. On the one hand, we'll be getting both the CPI and PPI data for March and we expect the data to be hot. On the other, the peak of the earnings season begins with reports from the big banks and they are expected to see earnings decline versus last year.