Equities wobbled on Thursday after opening at a new low. The action was driven by a hot PPI report that shows producer level inflation is still on the rise and accelerating on a YOY basis. The takeaway for investors is that, with producer prices still on the rise, consumer prices are going to rise as well and that is bad news for the economy. Inflation has been above the Fed's 2.0% target for over a year now and accelerating which is a situation that will force them to act and possibly more aggressively than they've been indicating. Because there is still more than a month before the next meeting and a full round of economic data, we think the market is in for more volatility if nothing else.
Next week, the market will have little to move it other than economic data. The earnings season is all but over and what's left is mostly consumer and retail names. The risk for the market is that consumer spending may flag in the face of rising prices and send the market into an earnings recession.