Equities fell for an 8th week last week and are heading lower. The S&P 500 confirmed a major reversal in price action when it dropped below 4,100 and then moved on to set a new low at the end of the week. The next catalyst for index movement will come on Wednesday with the release of the FOMC minutes which are expected to reveal a very hawkish Fed. Later in the week, the PCE price index will come into focus and we expect it to be a hot one. Based on the latest comments from Fed chief Jerome Powell, we think the number could increase the odds of a larger 75 basis point interest rate hike at the June meeting.

With the index in freefall, it seems the market has taken the adage "sell in May and go away" to heart. This means the summer season could be volatile and any movements should be viewed with skepticism, especially upward movements. The next major signal for the market won't likely come until the end of the summer when the institutional money and professional traders come back from vacation.