Equities rebounded on Wednesday despite signals the Fed will act more aggressively than the market is pricing in. The minutes indicate the FOMC is prepared to go beyond "tightening" to "restrictive" policy in order to tame inflation but is worried about risks to the system. The S&P 500 moved up to the highest level in over a week on the news and may move higher on Thursday but the index is not out of the woods. The market is still trading well below a key resistance target and there is a very important data point due out on Friday.

The PCE price index is due out tomorrow and could shock the market. The market is expecting signs of cooling and peaking but there is risk in that outlook. The bulk of CEOs reported rising inflation in their earnings reports this cycle and that does not suggest peaking or cooling for the consumer. A hot number will seal the deal on a "restrictive" policy change and heighten the risk of recession.