Equities reversed course on Thursday giving up all of their post-FOMC gains and more. The S&P 500 fell more than 3.5% at the low of the day to not only set a new low but indicate rising conviction within the market of an earnings recession if not an actual recession. With the FOMC on pace to raise rates to above 3.0% by the end of the year the odds of both an earnings recession and actual recession are on the rise.

In regards to GDP growth and actual recession, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool fell to 0.0% for the 2nd quarter and is on track to hit negative territory.

If this turns into reality and 2nd quarter GDP is negative the economy is already in a recession and that makes the risk worse. In this scenario, it's not a recession that is the worry but how deep and how long it will be, and how hard will the landing be.