The rally in equities began to fizzle out on Thursday following another day of commentary from the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell completed the second day of testimony on Capitol Hill, raising the fear of recession once again. In his comments, he says a recession is possible although the evidence suggests a recession is already underway. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of tepid or negative GDP growth and we've already logged one negative quarter this year. Based on the latest reading of the Leading Indicators, the 2nd quarter GDP will most likely be negative as well.

The next big hurdle for the market will come next week with the PCE price index. The index should moderate on a month-to-month and YOY basis but there is no guarantee it will. The most likely scenario is that month-to-month inflation moderated slightly but YOY gains are still robust and will cement the need for aggressive 75 basis point rate hikes from the FOMC.