Equity markets began the week in the green and moved up in Monday trading. The S&P 500 gained about a half of a percent at the high of the day and will probably move higher in the near term. The move is driven by the weaker than expected CPI data last week but investors are warned not to put too much faith in the rally. The rally is still a bear market rally and one that will result in another sell-off in the not too distant future. The question that needs to be answered is if the next sell-off will result in a clear Buy Signal that is confirmed by economic data and the outlook for earnings, or if the market will move down to another new low.

The big news this week is going to be the Retail Sales figures on Wednesday. The Economists are expecting a gain of only 0.1% versus the prior month which is tepid at best and optimistic at worst. A weak figure may not send the market into a tailspin but it will help set up the next decline. A series of weak economic reports could put an end to the market's optimism and there are other reports due out this week. Other reports of interest include several reads out of the housing market and the Index of Leader Indicators.