Equities extended their rebound on Monday taking the S&P 500 up a full percent at the height of the day. The rally, a relief rally, is driven by an expectation for economic improvement that is likely misplaced given the consensus figure for the CPI data. The analysts are expecting CPI to hold flat versus last month but the core and YOY figures will be hot. Core inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% which is the same as the prior month and it will drive an acceleration in the YOY figure as well. Core consumer inflation is expected to accelerate to 6.0% from last month's high of 5.9% and push the Fed to act aggressively at next week's FOMC meeting.

It is near given the FOMC will raise rates by another 75 basis points next week so the most important news will be the tone of the statement and the outlook for future hikes. The FOMC is already in uncharted territory so it is possible, however unlikely, that a 4th 75 basis point hike could be on the table.