Equity markets got what they wanted from the Fed but it was a two-edged sword that left the S&P 500 more than 2.5% at the end of the day Wednesday. The FOMC raised rates by 765 basis points as generally expected and gave a policy statement that sounded dovish at first read. The takeaway from the statement, however, is the FOMC is prepared to keep hiking rates at the current 75 basis point clip or near-to until the data changes and the data is not good.
Not only was the latest PCE price index hotter than expected and accelerating but this week's labor data suggest economic activity isn't slowing appreciably. The ADP report came in hotter than expected and included a 7.7% increase in wages that is underpinning inflation. Add to that another upswing in oil prices and it looks like the FOMC will hit its 4.5% to 4.75% core interest rate sooner rather than later. And the S&P 500? It's still in a downtrend and heading down to retest its lows.