Equities ended the month of November on solid footing boosted by remarks by Fed chief Jerome Powell. Mr. Powell signaled the FOMC may shift its stance as soon as the next meeting and slow the pace of interest rate hikes. While the market cheered the news the takeaway is that inflation is still running hot and underpinned by rising wages. In this light, the pace of hikes may have slowed but it is not going to end any sooner than previously indicated. The risk now is that inflation will only subside moderately and prolong the time it takes for the FOMC to do its job.

Today's news may alter the entire FOMC outlook once again so don't be surprised if the market makes an about face. The PCE price index is expected to cool from the previous month but may not have cooled as much as expected. Regardless, the index is expected to support the current outlook for interest rate hikes which is having a negative impact on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings. While this dynamic is overshadowing the market no rally should be trusted.