Equity markets started the week on solid footing and lifted the S&P 500 more than 1.3% at the high of the session. The move is driven by optimism the FOMC will slow the pace of interest rate hikes at the meeting on Wednesday but the hope may be misplaced. While the Fed may slow the pace of hikes at this meeting it is still on pace to hike rates above 5.0% by the middle of next year and there is risk in the outlook.

The biggest risk for the market this week other than the FOMC is the CPI index for November. The index is expected to show a slight moderation in headline inflation but the core is expected to hold steady at 0.3% month-to-month. At this pace, there is a chance the FOMC will not slow the pace of interest rate hikes because easing back on the pressure may allow the economy to accelerate. The labor market is also still strong so, assuming the CPI is strong as well, there is every reason to believe the Fed will keep the pressure on.