Equity markets continued to pull back falling for the 3rd day as fear of the FOMC intensifies. The CPI was cooler than expected and the FOMC gave the market what it wanted but it came with a string attached. That string was an expectation for inflation to remain hot in 2023 and for the peak of interest rates to be above 5.0% and for it to stay at the peak until 2024. This news means the pressure that is currently weighing on the economy will not only increase but it will remain in place for at least the next 13 months.

The takeaway is that a recession is closing in on the US economy and the S&P 500. Even without an actual economic recession the S&P 500 is about to enter an earnings recession that could last all of next year. In this light, the odds are high the S&P 500 will resume its downtrend and retest the lows near 3,500. If there is no improvement to the outlook by then the index could fall to a new low.