Equity markets are bracing for what could be a very frosty winter for the stock market. The lingering rise in inflation coupled with the rise of FOMC interest rates has the outlook for S&P 500 earnings in decline and that is the single most important factor to lead the stock market. In this light, the S&P 500 could be expected to fall back to previous lows near 3,500 sometime early in the New Year. The question is when it will be hit and how low the bottom will be when the market gets there. If the outlook for earnings continues to deteriorate the S&P 500 could easily slip below support at the 3,500 level and continue its plunge deeper into correction territory.

The risk for the market this week is almost entirely in the economic data. There are several important reports due out this week including the ADP and NFP reports on employment. The takeaways will be the level of employment and the pace of wage inflation. If either holds true to trends that include steady job gains and mid-single-digit levels of wage inflation the market will not take the news well.