Equity markets advanced on Wednesday and drove the S&P 500 up more than 1.0% at the day's high. The move was driven by an expectation today's CPI figures would confirm a cool-down in inflation, but there is risk in complacency. The FOMC is indicating that interest rates have yet to do their work and is hinting very strongly that peak rates will be higher than the market is pricing and remain that way for longer than expected. A hot number, a hotter-than-expected number, may sway market sentiment again and spark another downdraft in equities.
The next FOMC meeting is less than 3 weeks away and will be a market-moving event. In this case, the FOMC confirms the market's expectations the S&P 500 could regain the 4,200 level within a matter of weeks. The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing at least another 25 basis point interest rate hike with a chance of another 50. The risk for the market is that the statement will confirm the idea that interest rates will continue to move higher despite a cool-down in the CPI data should it come.