Equity markets reversed course on Tuesday and closed higher for the day ending January on an up note. The S&P 500 gained almost 1.5% at the end of the day on signs the earnings season is better than expected. The caveat is that market action is still below significant resistance and the outlook for earnings is deteriorating. In this light, the next big move in the market is more likely to be down than up and there are more risks than one to be wary of.

Today brings another FOMC policy statement and it could be one for the history books. The market is expecting the FOMC to slow the pace of hikes and indicate the peak of inflation has passed but it might be disappointed. The latest inflation data confirm a peak was hit but give little indication that inflation is truly subsiding in a way that is sustainable. What this means is the FOMC needs to make the market believe interest rates will stay high enough for long enough to ensure that happens.