Equity markets wobbled on Tuesday following an unexpectedly hot read on consumer inflation. The January read on the Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling versus last year but less than expected as near-term inflation reaccelerates. The acceleration in inflation is driven by wage inflation and new troubles within the supply chain. Inventories are on the rise across the S&P 500 universe, driving up the cost of storage.
Wednesday's action could bring more trouble for an already tired market. The January retail sales figures is due out and it could be an alarming number. The consensus is for retail sales to have increased versus the previous month despite the typical post-holiday slowdown and impact of inflation. In this light, the Retail Sales figure might not just be bad, it might be very bad and point to increasing weakness within the economy. The takeaway, as always, is that poor retail sales figures will equate to lower expectations for S&P 500 earnings.