Equity markets tried to extend last week's rally on Monday, but early gains faded by the afternoon leaving the S&P 500 flat for the day. The move was driven by hopes the economy has seen the worst of inflation and interest rates, offset by the reality that inflation is still hot and the FOMC is still on pace to hike rates. The latest data from the CME suggests another 50 basis point hike will not be coming but that the peak of interest rates could be above 5.5%. This has the average 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 7.4% and near the highest levels in over 20 years. At this level, mortgage demand is in quick retreat and has analysts downgrading the homebuilding sector.

Later this week the NFP report will move the market. The pace of employment is expected to slow to near 200,000 which is still a healthy figure; the questions that need to be answered are about unemployment, wages, and revisions to the previous month. The crucial data will be the wage data; another 4% or greater increase in wage inflation will surely keep the FOMC on track with its plans and weigh on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings.