Equity markets moved higher on Thursday to close a holiday-shortened week on a positive note. An improvement in outlook does not drive the move, so it should be viewed cautiously. The data this week has been tepid, to say the least, and is pointing to the recession that has been on the horizon for some time. With the FOMC on track to hike rates by another 25 basis points at least, the odds of a significant recession are high.

Today's news includes the monthly NFP report. It is expected to echo the ADP report and show a slowdown in hiring coupled with an ongoing wage increase. The increase in wages is of concern because it is underpinning inflation. With oil prices rising again and wages still creeping higher, the FOMC may not be able to end its rate-hiking streak with only 1 more increase.