Equity markets started the week quietly. Traders and investors are eyeing the CPI data due on Wednesday. CPI is expected to moderate on a month-to-month basis but remain strong on a YOY basis and possibly accelerate at the core level. The risk now isn't so much the CPI data but the price of oil underpinning inflation. With oil prices on the rise and heading to $100 per barrel, another acceleration of inflation should be expected.

This week is the start of peak earnings reporting season for the Q1 fiscal period. The first reports come out on Thursday and Friday, with the big banks reporting on Friday. The analysts have been lowering their expectations so the bar may be easy to bet. The risk in this quarter is that revenue and earnings will miss the consensus or worse, the guidance will be reduced. Int that scenario, the S&P 500 will have little choice but to move lower.