Equity markets got a boost from the better-than-expected CPI report, but the strength did not last. The headline CPI figure moderated more than expected, but YOY gains and core inflation remain strong. Also, oil prices are rising and will underpin another acceleration of inflation; the only question is when. The price of WTI gained more than 2.25% for the day to break out of a trading range and confirm the continuation of rebounding. With OPEC+ tilting the balance in favor of supply it is likely oil will rise to $100 per barrel at least.

This week's market risks are not behind us. The March retail sales figures are due out on Friday and are expected to be negative. The risk is that spending will fall more than expected and lead the S&P 500 lower. As it is, the index confirms resistance at a critical level and is more likely to sell off than to rally.