Equity markets closed with a gain on Tuesday, but the advance was slim, and the takeaways bearish. The S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.09% after trading in a tight range that confirms the presence of resistance at the 4,150 level. 4,150 has been a line the bulls can not cross since the middle of 2022, and nothing in the outlook says that will change now.

Some better-than-expected earnings reports and guidance are helping to lift the market, but it may be too little too late. Data in the form of housing starts and building permits suggests the economic contraction everyone expects is getting worse. The data show starts and permits fell more than expected compared to last month and are down 17% and 24%, respectively. Because permits are a leading indicator of starts, the start figure should be expected to decline further.