Equity markets rebounded by 2% on Thursday, hoping the PCE price index would confirm a slowdown in inflation. The index is expected to hold steady at 0.3% compared to last month but fall to 4.5% compared to last year. That is a 0.1% decline in inflation but not enough reason for the market to rally. The market hopes that inflation will fall more than expected and lead the FOMC to begin pausing its interest rate hikes next week.

The risk for the Fed and the market is that pausing will allow the economy to regain traction and sustain inflation. In that scenario, the Fed will have to hike rates again later this year, possibly at a market-surprising pace. With oil prices hovering at levels not sustained in over a decade, it is unlikely inflation will turn negative, and there is a risk that oil prices will rise again. Oil prices are tied to the economic outlook; if the Fed surprises with a pause next week, the outlook will brighten, and oil prices will rise.