Equity markets retreated on Tuesday as fear of the Fed gripped the market. The S&P 500 fell more than 1.25% at the session's low and continues to show resistance at the 4,150 level. The odds the FOMC will hike by another 25 basis points is high; the risk for the market is in the policy statement. The FOMC may back off from further interest rate hikes, given the state of inflation and the risk to the banking sector, but it will not roll over and go to sleep. Inflation remains high; the FOMC needs to be sure the market understands it is ready to hike rates again should the data warrant it.

The NFP report will be another market-moving event later this week. The report is expected to show a slowdown in hiring and an uptick in unemployment which was foreshadowed by the JOLTs report on Tuesday. The JOLTs report shows that the number of open job positions has fallen to the lowest level in 2 years as employers cut back on expansion plans. This is the first real sign of economic slowing the market has taken to heart, and it is 1 that could result in recession.