Equity markets ended a turbulent week on solid footing, rising more than 2.0% on Friday. The move was supported by a robust NFP report that shows job and wage gains with unemployment lingering at low levels. The news suggests core economic strength that will help the Fed achieve its soft-landing but other data disagrees. The number of layoffs is rising while job availability declines and consumer products manufacturers brace for a downturn in spending.

Next week will be about inflation with reports on CPI, PPI and import prices. The CPI data is expected to come in flat compared to the previous month, which is hot and contrary to the idea of the Fed pausing. The risk for the market is that inflation will persist at these levels into the summer and force another interest rate hike. In that scenario, more banks will fail, and consumer spending will slow further.