Equity markets advanced on Thursday in hopes the US would reach a debt-ceiling agreement soon. The move led the S&P 500 up nearly a full percentage point to reach the highest level in more than 6 months. The new high may attract new buyers and result in another high, but the market is not out of the woods. The S&P 500 is trading within a tight range that has capped stocks for over a year. A move up to 4,300 is expected, but more than that is just a guess.

Retail earnings are mixed so far. Some are beating expectations, a few are guiding the year higher, but all indicate weakness in the 2nd quarter. The risk for the market is that weakness will linger into the 3rd quarter and results in downward revisions when 2nd quarter results are released. The takeaway is that the S&P 500 is still in a rolling bear market and could hit the next top anytime.