Equity markets traded within a tight range on Tuesday while investors wait for the June FOMC policy announcement. The announcement is scheduled for next Wednesday and will determine the next big move for equities. Given the acceleration of inflation in recent data, the FOMC will likely be hawkish in its stance, but it may not hike rates again. The risk is the CPI data due out the day before the release. The CPI may confirm the acceleration of inflation and lead the FOMC to surprise the market. Either way, the economy is in a new "normal" that will dominate the S&P 500 price action for years.

The key level to watch on the S&P 500 is 4,300. That is the top of a critical resistance zone that capped gains for over 12 months. If the market can rise above this level, it will probably retest the all-time high. Moving up to a new all-time high is another matter and may not happen, given the odds of a recession have risen above 70% and are still rising.