Equity markets were able to advance on Friday after a week of consolidation. The S&P 500 moved up through the 4300 level to set a new 12-month high and it may keep going higher. However, the move is not driven by any fundamental factor that can be pinned down, so the bottom could fall out of the market at any time. This week's risk is multi-faceted and could be the difference between a summer rally and a quick reversal.

Topping the list of market-moving events is the FOMC meeting. The FOMC is not expected to hike rates but may surprise the market with its statement. The CPI is another market-moving event, and it comes out ahead of the FOMC announcement. whatever the market thinks will happen at the meeting could change, given the CPI news. After that, it's the retail sales figure which is due out on Thursday. Retail sales are expected to rise YOY but not enough to offset inflation; the takeaway is that demand is in decline only we're paying more for what we get.