Equity markets advanced on Thursday, with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 1.5% at the session's high and setting a new 14-month high. The melt-up is driven by the idea that the FOMC is close to ending its rate hiking cycle but will end in disaster. The FOMC is nearing the end of the rate hiking cycle, but interest rates will top out above 5.5%, well above what the market had priced in, and promise to remain high for the foreseeable future. This has ushered in a "new normal" for the market that will not be fully realized for at least another year. What this means for the S&P 500 is a reduced demand that will cut into growth.

What this means for the S&P 500 is a trading range. The top of the range is near all-time highs and will probably be reached by the start of Q2 earnings reporting. Assuming the consensus figures for the 2nd half contract as they have done for the last 8 quarters, the odds are high that the S&P 500 will top out at an all-time high and move sideways within the now-established range. How long that range lasts is anybody's guess, but the charts suggest it could be 5 to 10 years.