The equity market rebounded on Thursday, breaking a 3-day losing streak. The rebound shows support at a 2-week low and may lead to another rally, given the right news. The risk is that the summer rally is already peaking due to the renewed fear of FOMC rate hikes. The FOMC has come out with strong rhetoric that inflation is not tamed, more work needs to be done, and 2 or more rate hikes could be on the way.

Next week will be another trying week for the market. The May read of the PCE price index is due out on Friday, and it could be another hot one. If so, the market may be unable to shrug it off as it has in the past. The market, the economy, the Fed, and inflation are heading toward a reckoning that may only produce losers. Odds of a recession stand at 65%.