Equity markets began the final week of June on shaky footing. The S&P 500 hovered within a tight range but closed lower for the session. The move is due in part to caution; the PCE price index is due out later this week and should be a market-moving event. The question is which way the market will move, and the bias now is upward. The index is expected to show core inflation moderating to 4.6% YOY, which is good news, but the FOMC will remain hawkish at this level.

The next few weeks will be trying times for the market. The PCE price index is only 1 worry; after that, there is fear the FOMC will hike rates to the point that it will crack the economy more. Fed members, including Jerome Powell, have indicated that 2 or more hikes are still possible; increases will likely cause more bank failures and consolidation within the financial industry. The only good news is that AI is lifting the tech sector and may continue to do so through the end of the summer.