Equity markets continue to move higher as earnings season gets into high gear. Reports from names like Lockheed Martin, Bank Of America, and Charles Schwab were better than expected and fueled the idea of a soft economic landing. The news is good enough that it may impact the outlook for the 2nd half earnings, which would be significant. An improvement in the 2nd half outlook would be a catalyst to lift the S&P 500 to a new all-time high.

The risk for the market is complacency. The earnings season and economic outlook are better than expected, but clouds continue to loom. The FOMC is expected to hike rates by at least 25 basis points, which will pressure the economy. More banks will fail in the coming months, credit conditions will tighten, and demand may begin to contract, putting a cap on the market. That could be at an all-time high within the next few weeks; it could be later this year when the S&P 500 begins to give guidance for calendar 2024.