Equity markets gained over 1.0% on Friday to close at a new 1-year high. The move was inspired by softer-than-expected PCE price data that suggests the FOMC is near the end of its tightening cycle. The caution for investors is that inflation remains hot at 4.1% core, and the oil price is rising again. Oil prices underpin inflation; with WTI set to move to a multi-month high, inflation will accelerate again.

This week will be another trying 1 for investors. A host of earnings reports is due out this week on top of the monthly labor data. The NFP report is expected to show another solid increase in job creation and rising wages. The risk is two-fold; a hot figure will play into the idea that the FOMC is not through raising interest rates, while a cool 1 may foreshadow the recession that has loomed for the last year.