Equity markets tried to advance for the 5th day on Thursday, but the gains were slim, the index closed virtually flat, and the peak of the move may have been reached. The PCE Price Index for July came in hotter than expected and shows consumer-level inflation is accelerating. The data increased the fear of another Fed rate hike, although the market still believes the committee is already done. The odds of another hike are less than 50/50, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, and softened following the release.

The S&P 500 advanced solidly for the week, and an interesting setup is developing. The market could continue higher but will have to break critical resistance levels. Those levels coincide with the summer peak and, if not broken, may produce a double top of another bearish pattern in the index. In that scenario, the market could fall 5% to 10% from current levels before hitting firm support, and there is additional risk. The next FOMC meeting is less than 3 weeks away, and another inflation report is due before then.