Summer is officially over, and equity markets will look to begin the week on a fresh footing. After rallying all summer, the question is if the S&P 500 can continue to rally this fall. Based on the outlook for oil prices, inflation, and the Fed, the market is heading for a ceiling regardless of how high it is. This week, items of interest on the economic calendar include the Fed's Beige Book and speeches from at least 6 Fed members. Hence, the odds are high that volatility will be present this week whether the market moves higher or lower.

The Vix is the market's preeminent tool for gauging fear. The VIX index fell to the lowest levels since 2020 last week, indicating the market is less fearful than it has been in years. This indicates the stock market could rally but discounts several upcoming catalysts. Among them are the August read on CPI and the September FOMC meeting, about 2 weeks away. Another hot read of inflation could lead the market to believe what the Fed's been hinting at all summer: another rate hike is coming in 2023.