Equity markets pulled back ahead of the August CPI report due to a rising fear of inflation. The CPI report is expected to show an acceleration at the headline level driven by oil prices. Oil prices continue to trend upward and suggest the acceleration of inflation will persist into the following month, increasing pressure on the economy. In this scenario, the FOMC is set to hike rates again this year, and they could do it more than once.

The question today is, what will the CPI show? If the data is cooler than expected, the market may continue to rally, although it's heading straight into a bull trap. Even with a cooler-than-expected CPI now, the oil price has risen more than 10% in the last 4 weeks and will impact September data. If the data is hotter than expected, the FOMC may be more hawkish than expected at the meeting next week and hike rates unexpectedly.