Equity markets continued to rebound on Tuesday, but investors should not read too much into the move. The S&P 500 gained less than 1% for the day and remains below critical resistance. If anything, Tuesday's gain was a relief rally within a bear market and 1 that comes with outsized risk. Today is the FOMC policy decision, and the odds are high that the committee will issue a very hawkish statement.

The pace of inflation remains high despite recent slowing and will keep the Fed's foot on the economic brakes indefinitely. In the absence of a recession, the odds favor high inflation for a prolonged period due to resilient labor markets, consumer spending and oil demand.

Regardless, the consensus figures for Q4 and 2024 S&P 500 earnings growth are suffering. The consensus figure for Q4 is down 50% from its peak and could fall further. Because earnings growth is a market-leading data point, it is likely the S&P 500 will continue to see downward pressure.