Equity markets advanced last week, but the top to this rally is closer than ever. The bulk of the week's movement occurred on Friday, which is a generally bullish signal but met resistance near recent highs. The technical picture suggests the market hit the ceiling and stands to correct any day and maybe spurred to sell off this week. This week brings the latest labor market data, which is expected to align with labor market health and wage inflation.

The risk for markets is oil. Oil has been a wild card in 2023, but the odds are high that the price will rise soon. OPEC's latest production moves will take some time to impact but keep the supply/demand outlook tight. In this scenario, the price of oil is unlikely to stay down long and could rebound to the top of the EIA's target range for next year. That puts the price of oil at an average of $89 per barrel in 2024 and in position to keep inflation running hot.