Equity markets pulled back on Monday to potentially end 5 straight weeks of historic market gains. The S&P 500 rose more than 12% in that time to set a new high for the year but may not be able to move much higher. The market is still trading within a significant range, and there is little reason to think it can continue to rally. While the peak of the Fed's interest rate cycle is near, there is still much uncertainty in the 2024 outlook, and the consensus figures for earnings growth continue to decline. The latest figures for Q4 have S&P 500 EPS growth at only 3%, down nearly 1000 basis points from the peak set earlier this year.

Economic data is the most visible market-moving event this week. About a dozen reports are due, with the NFP and labor data topping the list. The NFP is expected to show persistent strength in the labor market and give the FOMC little leeway with their next decisions. Consumer inflation is cooling, but tight labor market conditions are a tinder box for inflation provided a catalyst: the Fed indicating lower rates are coming is a catalyst the market is desperate to see.