Equity markets advanced following as-expected inflation data and a shift in Fed policy. The Fed indicated rate cuts are likely in 2024, marking the top of the rate hiking cycle. The bad news is that inflation continues to run hot so higher-than-normal interest rates will persist for some time. Even with the 75 basis points of cuts indicated, the market will end the year with rates at 4.5% or higher and double the rate going into the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 is moving higher, and a Santa Claus Rally is likely; this week's PCE price index is a likely catalyst for the bulls. The risk is that markets remain below critical resistance at the all-time high which might cap gains for this year and next. However, if the S&P 500 can move above the all-time and sustain it through January, the odds are high that the market will continue to rally in 2024.