Equity markets tried to rebound from Wednesday's unexpected selloff on Thursday but failed to regain the prior days' losses. The S&P gained 1% for the day but closed well off the highs for the week. The weekly pattern suggests a rising level of fear ahead of the PCE report, due out Friday. The PCE report is expected to confirm slowing inflation but at an insufficient pace to allow the FOMC to cut interest rates soon.

The S&P 500 price action shows resistance below the all-time high, a critical hurdle for the market. Given the proper catalyst, resistance at this level could lead to range-bound trading or a sharp correction. That catalyst could come soon, given the risk of inflation accelerating. Oil markets are already stabilizing after their correction, and ocean-going freight rates are through the roof on geopolitical concerns centered on the Red Sea.