Equity markets hovered near break even on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibilities for 2024. Among them is a rally. The outlook for earnings is growth with sequential acceleration throughout the year. Another is a recession. The FOMC policy is restrictive and yet to be fully seen in the data. The odds are high that consumer spending will be weak in the first half and may lead to a recession. This sets the market up to advance, provided the Q1 reporting season is good, or to fall if it isn't.

The next market-moving news for equities will come next week. The monthly jobs creation data is due and is expected to reveal persistent strength in the labor markets. In this scenario, the odds of a soft landing will grow and help to lift equities ahead of the Q1 reporting season. Calander Q1/fiscal Q4 reporting begins in two weeks with JPMorgan Chase. The bank is expected to grow revenue by 20% over last year and widen margin aided by higher interest rates.